Affect of Recency Bias on Investments

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If I let you know, I flipped a coin 5 instances and on a regular basis I obtained head. What would be the consequence on sixth flip? Most of us will say head.

Then I let you know that earlier than this when the coin was flipped 20 instances, the result was 50% head and 50% tail. After this data, we might get a bit of hesitant in calling out the result as head on the sixth flip however principally nonetheless go together with the top.

This phenomenon is named recency bias. And it performs a dominant position on the earth of investments.

When the markets preserve rising over the latest previous, with out a lot correction, most of us begin believing that it’s going to proceed to rise sooner or later as nicely with out a lot draw back.

The market members trip this bias and discuss eye-popping latest positive aspects. The media shouts on the high of its voice to sensationalize this additional. Only some will current an extended image of the market historical past.

Sadly, each time the market positive aspects, individuals improve their stake with the expectation of superlative returns to proceed. And that will increase the general threat within the funding portfolio. In some unspecified time in the future, the markets right leading to worth erosion and remorse.

Nevertheless, the nice half is that if we perceive that we’re impacted by the recency bias, we are able to work over it.

To beat this bias, one ought to learn the market historical past of at the least the final 50 years intimately, not simply of India however worldwide extra developed markets. It will assist not simply in safeguarding the hard-earned cash within the downturn but additionally current an incredible alternative to speculate at cheaper costs.

Concluding this publish with a quote from Carl Richards “In case you are not conscious of recency bias, it could actually wreak havoc in your life. The one answer I’ve come throughout is to elongate your definition of the latest previous.”

Initially posted on LinkedIn:

Truemind Capital is a SEBI Registered Funding Administration & Private Finance Advisory platform. You may write to us at or name us at 9999505324.


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