Mortgage cliff – factual or false?

Mortgage cliff – factual or false? | Australian Dealer Information

Business specialists share their views on matter

Mortgage cliff – factual or false?

The Australian mortgage market in 2023 was dominated by one main storyline: the mortgage cliff.

With 800,000 debtors rolling off traditionally low loans mounted through the pandemic, the ominous time period grew to become a family reference to the upcoming catastrophe that was about to happen.

Debtors would face a monetary shock when their charges reset to considerably greater ranges, with many caught in ‘mortgage jail’ – the place debtors are caught with their lender due to their lowered borrowing capability.

Nevertheless, a lot of this didn’t eventuate regardless of the anticipated excessive ranges of refinancing exercise.

Some specialists, together with Steve Williams (pictured above left), director of Patrons Agent Perth, imagine it was all media hype.

Others, like George Samios (pictured above proper) from Queensland brokerage Madd Loans, suppose the true mortgage cliff is but to come back.

As latest knowledge from Aussie Residence Loans offers a state-by-state breakdown of the areas through which debtors are at the moment most liable to falling sufferer to the mortgage cliff, Australian Dealer explores one of many tendencies that formed the mortgage business.

Was the mortgage cliff simply media hype?

As many within the media business can attest, journalists love a headline.

And the mortgage cliff actually served up a juicy one, portray an image of ‘monetary armageddon’ for 1000’s of Australian householders. However was all of it smoke and mirrors, a fastidiously constructed narrative for clicks and shares?

Williams mentioned he spoke to individuals wanting to purchase property day by day about their fears and worries.

“ ‘Property costs are going to crash’, they are saying. This 12 months I used to be typically requested what I feel would occur to property costs with the mortgage cliff.

“My response was, ‘it is all media hype’. And would share my reasoning backed by the figures. For instance, of the $10 trillion worth of Australian property, there’s solely $2 trillion in debt.” 

Why the mortgage cliff didn’t eventuate

Williams’ forecast was vindicated in October when the RBA mentioned most debtors that had rolled off mounted charges had managed to make their repayments and had ample revenue and financial savings to afford their mortgages transferring ahead.

“With arrears nonetheless beneath historic averages, it’s a very good signal that it was a gentle touchdown,” Williams mentioned.

He mentioned if the mortgage cliff had eventuated and other people have been compelled to promote, it might have been felt otherwise in every state.

“For a lot of elements of the nation there are shortages of properties in the marketplace, so the elevated inventory would have possible been absorbed by the massive demand from patrons,” Williams mentioned. “Particularly contemplating that new house building is method wanting what we’d like.”

The influence of worry 

Whereas one could possibly be grateful that the mortgage cliff didn’t have the anticipated influence, Williams mentioned worry affected the market in different methods.

“I recall talking to this one couple again in April who have been contemplating shopping for an funding property in Perth however that they had fears of the mortgage cliff and the ‘blood tub’ that it may trigger with costs falling,” Williams mentioned.

“Guess what has occurred since April? Median property costs in Perth alone have grown by roughly 7.8%, in keeping with Corelogic. They misplaced tens of 1000’s due to this worry.”

Are some debtors nonetheless hanging on the sting of a mortgage cliff?

Whereas some rejoice dodging the mortgage cliff, others like Madd Loans’ George Samios warn his shoppers that the worst is but to come back.

“Everybody reported that 2023 was the 12 months for the mortgage cliff when it’s truly subsequent 12 months and the 12 months after that for a lot of,” Samios mentioned.

“We’ve $180 million value of loans coming off low mounted charges subsequent 12 months and $230 million the 12 months after as a result of these 1.99% charges have been four- and five-year mounted charges,” Samios mentioned, referencing knowledge from Madd Loans’ mortgage books.

With the RBA tipped to decrease charges over the second half of subsequent 12 months into 2025, Samios’ strategy could save his shoppers from the worst of the mortgage cliff.

“I get SMS’s from individuals thanking me saying, thank God you mounted me,” Samios mentioned.

State-by-state breakdown of the mortgage cliff

Echoing Samios’ level, simply because refinancing could have peaked in July,  it doesn’t imply debtors aren’t scuffling with the results of the mortgage cliff now.

Latest Aussie knowledge takes a more in-depth have a look at the state-by-state breakdown for households who have been subsequent in line to really feel the ache of refinancing between October and the tip of the 12 months.

Right here’s a breakdown of the highest postcodes per state that shall be affected probably the most by mounted charges ending in that timeframe:

New South Wales

30% of debtors with mounted charges expiring by year-end face a mean month-to-month enhance of $1,708, with Western Sydney postcodes 2145 and 2747 most in danger.


Postcodes 3064 and 3977, together with Craigieburn and Cranbourne, will see debtors going through a mean $1,421 month-to-month enhance.


Owners in postcodes 4300 and 4209, encompassing Springfield, Goodna, Higher Coomera, and Pimpana, may see their repayments rise by $1,237 per thirty days.

Western Australia

Postcodes 6210 and 6018, together with Mandurah and Gwelup, face a possible month-to-month enhance of $1,120.

South Australia

Postcodes 5108 and 5114, together with Salisbury and Smithfield, may see repayments rise by $1,108 per thirty days.

Australian Capital Territory

Postcodes 2913 and 2617, together with Franklin and Belconnen, face a possible enhance of $1,395 per thirty days.


Postcodes 7054 and 7010, together with Barretta and Dowsing Level, may see repayments climb by $1,102 per thirty days.

Northern Territory

Postcodes 0810 and 0832, encompassing Lee Level and Bakewell, are most in danger, going through a possible month-to-month enhance of $1,009.

Demystifying the mortgage cliff

In the end, the mortgage cliff could not have been the monetary catastrophe it was painted to be, however the indicators have been there to counsel an incoming danger to debtors.

Whereas the mortgage business has efficiently navigated the worst of this danger, the lesson continues to be to be discovered for some debtors throughout the nation rolling off low charges over the subsequent couple of years.

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